Season 2: Winners Cup Week 2 Top 32 Recap

The top 32 is done and so it is time to use  random statistics to try and extrapolate uncertain 'facts'.

One fact I am particularly keen to investigate is whether the best players are actually the best players. There was a discussion on discord recently where several high rated players stated that everyone is actually rubbish and that the ratings don't matter as not enough games have been played yet. Let us see if there is any truth to these wild, unsubstantiated accusations.

First let us look at the simple results


Tag
ID
Rating
Pod Place
Clan
Vs
Tag
ID
Rating
Pod Place
Clan
MindsDesire
155
1965
1st
Dragon

Erik
131
1854
2nd
Crane
Bayushi Yuuji
24
1792
1st
Scorpion

Daidoji Micah
169
1853
2nd
Crane
Kingsley
98
1978
1st
Dragon

Cody
107
1657
playoff
Crab
Heinzel
89
1707
playoff
Scorpion

Asahina Neph
161
1611
2nd
Crane
Jokingly
166
1774
1st
Crab

Kiramode
117
1801
1st
Lion
Shosuro Sakuya
118
1677
playoffs
Scorpion

Fordream
209
1769
1st
Scorpion
Action_johnny
249
1591
playoffs
Crab

SirLargeness
127
1740
2nd
Scorpion
Sahini Sashimi
194
1776
1st
Dragon

Calimsha
171
1635
2nd
Scorpion
Jeremy
206
1700
1st
Crane

Wydwen
218
1541
2nd
Scorpion
Bill.jr
48
1710
playoffs
Lion

Sotomatic
193
1704
2nd
Phoenix
Tsuke
160
1681
1st
Lion

Sruman
144
1765
playoffs
Lion
Shenful
162
1874
2nd
Scorpion

BryonKrane
181
1881
1st
Scorpion
Mirumoto Kai
202
1876
2nd
Dragon

Shosurpo Kiseki
4
1434
2nd
Scorpion
Chutereve
52
1814
1st
Crane

Togashi Komhl
180
1780
1st
Dragon
Shosuro Wild
158
1626
1st
Scorpion

Isawa Eujin
139
1841
2nd
Phoenix
Goblin Guide
219
1695
1st
Lion

VinceVelorn
116
1608
1st
Crab

So what fabulous facts can we garner. Let us initially avoid the thorny question of skill and look at how well the clans are doing (apologies to Unicorn but as they had no players in the top 64 (who played) so we are just comparing the remaining six clans)


The average is a consistent 16.666%. So Scorpion was dominant the 64 and increased that dominance in the 32 but fell back slightly in the 16. The next most successful clan is Dragon which started below average but then climbed up in the 32 and then drastically improved in the 16. Of the others Crab has  kept their participation percentage steady. Crane started above average but has dropped steadily since. Lion has had a horrible time, though this is partially due to two mirror matches (with few players to begin with) occurring in both top 64 and top 32. Phoenix was below average in the 64. Dropped badly in the 32 but due to its two players both winning has managed to make some of that loss back again.

Now to the thorny question of quality. If the supposition that the ratings have not had enough games to be valid then we would expect fairly frequent beatings of high ranked players by low ranked players or at least a lot of volatility in results. For these purposes let us assume that a heavily 'favoured' player would be one with a rating one hundred points higher than the opposition. Now this does not mean that the favoured player 'will' win just that if you were betting their chances of winning would be better (any given Sunday and all that). If you look again at the chart I have highlighted in green heavily favoured players and in red their opponents. Cream means the game is broadly average. So I expect the green players to win and the red players to lose. Cream players could go either way. What then are the results?


85.71% of heavily favoured players beat their opponents
thus only 14.28% of unfavoured players  (just the one, Wydwen) broke the odds and won.

Let's look at it another way. Players in the top cut came in via three methods. 1st and 2nd place in a pod auto qualified. 3rd and 4th went through a playoffs (one wasn't actually needed due to drops but in principle they would have). Now this is broadly indicated by the ratings as only the top pod players get a dominant rating by winning a lot whereas the playoff players by definition will have lost some games so will (usually) have lower ratings.

In the top 32 we have

1st placed pod players:  46.875%
2nd placed pod players: 34.375%
playoff pod players: 18.75%

after the top 32 these percentages change to

1st placed pod players: 50%
2nd placed pod players: 37.5%
playoff pod players: 6.25%

So as with the ratings you can only say that those players who came 1st and 2nd in the pods continued and increased their dominance in the play offs at the extreme expense of the play off players. You could also say that as the competition continues the 1st and 2nd players are steadily increasing their dominance.

Therefore at this point the ratings are indicating, with a high degree of accuracy, who the better players currently are and as such have confirmed their validity. The 'ratings don't count and we are all crap' supposition has been proved incorrect.

None of this says that a lower ranked player cannot or will not beat a higher ranked player just that it is unlikely. For the remainder of the winner's cup the prospective bill.jr for people who love beaing the odds this season is Wydwen.

Finally regardless as to the last match result (which has not played yet but is even in ratings and involve two Scorpions so does not affect the calculations above). The next round will have five games with perceived dominant players and three that are broadly equal. The gap between the dominant and their opponents is dropping though and when we reach the top 16 nerves, stress and luck can all cause larger issues so it will be interesting to see if the dominant players continue in the same vein. Ignoring the average games and looking just at 1st/2nd/playoffs we have four 1st vs 2nd games, two 1st vs 1st, one 1st vs playoff  and finally one 2nd vs 2nd.

I look forward to some quality games, hopefully all streamed...

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